Risk Scenarios

• Multifood models with pre-run process models for concentration
• Expanded and more flexible approach to defining diets
• Added table views for visualization charts
• Result tab on the Edit Risk Scenario page showing list of reports, summary of risk estimates, and options for visualization
• Visualization of intermediate and final results for scenarios
• Sensitivity analysis for chronic multi-food, multi-hazard scenarios

Consumption Models

• Import chronic multifood consumption models
• Chronic multifood consumption models parameterized by consumers-only distribution and percentage of consumers in the distribution for per capita distribution
• Correlation of consumption across life stages for chronic multi-food consumption models

Process Models

• Import microbial sampling plan OC curve from FDA-OC App
• Added links to Notes for Predictive Models on the Edit Process Stage page
• Distribution of microbial concentrations in contaminated products across process stages visualization for single food, microbial scenarios

User Interface Experience

• Copy food feature enhanced to allow copies between repositories
• Copy hazard feature enhanced to allow copies between repositories
• Copy process model feature enhanced to allow copies between repositories

Notes

• Add references to notes
• Add images to notes

Predictive Microbiology Models

• Import ComBase thermal inactivation models
• Import ComBase non-thermal survival models
• Import ComBase Salmonella in egg models
• Import ComBase record growth and inactivation model fits
• Import ComBase DMFit growth and inactivation model fits
• Import ComBase Broth Model predicted growth
• Import ComBase Perfringens Predictor predicted growth
• Growth by Model process stages no longer require a temperature distribution when applying imported ComBase models

Sensitivity Analysis

• Exclude repeated scenario details in sensitivity analysis risk estimate reports

Process Models

• Concentration threshold exceedance process type for acute and chronic scenarios

Risk Scenarios

• Lifetime Daily Average Dose (LADD) Exceedance feature for chronic, single food scenarios
• Compute risk per person based on servings per year per person distributions for acute microbial scenarios
• Sensitivity analysis now available in most scenario types, including multi-food and exposure only
• Enhanced error messaging on sensitivity analysis tab

Predictive Microbiology Models

• Baranyi-Roberts primary growth model which accepts parameters from DMFit at combase.errc.ars.usda.gov

Dose Response Models

• APROBA dose response model now available for chronic chemical scenarios

Reports

• Empirical and Chance parameter definitions moved to an appendix for a more compact scenario summary in Risk Estimates and Scenario Ranking reports

New Distribution Options

• Laplace distribution
• Lognormal distribution defined with median

Process Models

• Import multiple parameter set initial conditions for microbial process models
• Input linked uncertainty distributions for initial conditions for microbial process models

Risk Scenarios

• Run a risk ranking report directly from the edit risk scenario page
• Streamlined sensitivity analysis parameterization for supported scenario types
• View all scenario model elements on the sensitivity analysis tab for supported scenario types
• Direct link to model element edit page on the sensitivity analysis tab for supported scenario types

Predictive Microbiology Models

• Import empirical growth and inactivation curves/models
• New secondary growth model
• New secondary lag model
• Most secondary models now support distributions and uncertainty for model parameters

Dose Response Models

• Import Empirical dose response models from text or Excel files

Reports

• Export chronic chemical exposure results to Excel

2D Monte Carlo Simulation

• Explicitly include probabilistic uncertainty and variability as separate dimensions (2D Monte Carlo Simulation)
• Define uncertainty for most model parameters
• Specify the settings used for variability and uncertainty simulations, including convergence criteria

Risk Scenarios

• Create a multi-food scenario to capture chronic exposure of the consumer to a hazard found in multiple foods
• Perform risk-risk and risk-benefit analysis with multi-hazard, multi-food chronic scenarios
• Compare risks from chronic hazards among consumers with different dietary patterns
• Improved parameter validation
• QALY health metric now available

Sensitivity Analysis

• New multi-parameter sensitivity analysis design
• Specify parameters for multiple parameters simultaneously
• Sensitivity analysis settings now saved with scenario

Process Models

• Incorporate predictive models for microbial growth and inactivation
• Parallel process models for microbial hazards
• Linked process model to different downstream process models
• Microbial toxin process models (using linked models)
• Sampling process type
• Cross contamination (addition) by transfer rate process type
• Non-log distributions for microbial concentrations and counts
• Define unit size as a distribution

Dose Response Models

• Create custom dose response models with the empirical dose response model
• Chronic monotonically decreasing dose response to evaluate health benefits
• Define uncertainty on parameters separately or as linked sets
• Import dose response models from shared library

Consumption Models

• Multi-food consumption models
• Populations groups renamed to lifestages for chronic consumption models
• Import consumption models from shared library

Reports

• Combine scenarios from different repositories in the same report
• Option to rank by exposure
• Simulation job notifications
• Convergence report
• Edit title and abstract for completed reports

UI Experience

• Centralized notes for model elements
• Link back to scenarios from the reports page for quick review
• Improved charts

Distributions

• Import empirical distributions
• Specify Uniform and Triangular distributions using 5th and 95th percentiles

Process Models

• Maximum Population Density (MPD) now included for microbial models
• "Increase by Addition" now handles rare event additions
• Variability distributions now include: Beta, Beta General, Normal (Truncated), and Triangular (Truncated)

Dose Response Models

• Microbial hazards now include: Threshold Linear and Weibull
• Acute chemical hazards now include: Cumulative Lognormal and Weibull
• Chronic chemical hazards now include: Log-Logistic with Background, Probit, Restricted Weibull, and Restricted Log Probit

Consumption Models

• Chronic consumption can now be defined in "g/kg-day"
• Variability distributions now include: Beta, Beta General, Lognormal, Normal (Truncated), and Triangular (Truncated)

Sensitivity Analysis

• Access a new tab for sensitivity analysis directly from Edit Risk Scenario page, to answer "what-if" questions
• Perform sensitivity analysis on acute and chronic risk scenario
• Analyze any model component
• Print a report on sensitivity analysis results

Model Management

• Create multiple repositories to manage your models
• Share model repositories separately
• Import and copy individual model elements

Reports

• Enhanced report layout
• Options for Word and Excel reports
• Include weighted scenarios when generating risk estimates and scenario ranking reports
• Report results for risk scenarios for chronic exposure as annualized or full lifespan
• Multiple options for ranking risk estimates

Risk Scenarios

• Create risk scenarios for exposure only models

UI Experience

• Plotted dose response models and distribution charts for graphic representations of dose response relationships and variability in contamination and consumption